2010-06 Presidential Employment Index

Great Grandma, Depression Era

Great Grandma, Depression Era

The Presidential Unemployment Index is a measure of a Presidents’ employment policies versus historic average, something roughly similar to the “Misery Index” (unemployment rate added to the inflation rate).

U-3, the “Official Unemployment Rate” essentially means “Unemployed and Collecting Unemployment Benefits”.

U-6 is what most would call “Total Unemployed Rate”. This represents people who are unemployed, at least making a minimum effort of looking for work, and may either collect unemployment or have run out of the benefit.

The Presidential Employment Index is the difference between U-6 (Total Unemployed) and U-3 (Official Unemployed) rates of seasonally adjusted unemployment compared to the historic average difference back to January 1994. The Presidential Unemployment Index Base (PUIB) is the average.

This should indicate, generally, whether Presidential policy helped generate strong demand for labor ( >0 ) or a weak demand for labor ( <0 ). We should also get a general trend of the annual expectation.

2010-06 Presidential Unemployment Index (PUIB = 04.17)
Year PEI President
1994 -0.52 Clinton
1995 -0.25 Clinton
1996 -0.04 Clinton
1997    0.30 Clinton
1998    0.68 Clinton
1999    0.96 Clinton
2000    1.11 Bush
2001    0.77 Bush
2002    0.37 Bush
2003    0.03 Bush
2004     0.14 Bush
2005     0.32 Bush
2006     0.54 Bush
2007     0.45 Bush
2008  -0.59 Bush
2009  -2.84 Obama
2010  -2.86 Obama YTD

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